Gambler’s Fallacy

"W-what?" John stuttered, not even attempting to hide his startled expression.

"I don't know if she was just trying to intimidate me, or justify why she spared me..." Adantia whispered, her eyes intense, "but I know that look from her. She wasn't bluffing. And if Rachel gets killed because you couldn't leave well enough alone, you-"

"You don't have to threaten me," John said quietly, gently reaching up and resting both his hands on Adantia's wrists where she was gripping his armor. "I get it, this isn't as simple as I was hoping it might be... but if you tell me what's really going on here, maybe I can try to make it right."

"And how are you gonna do that? Fix my city? Protect Rachel? You can't even win your war without my help."

The words stung, although John couldn't exactly say they were inaccurate... Vallya's words echoed in John's head for a moment as he stared at Adantia's face, trying to figure out some olive branch he could offer the woman. Vallya's words about solving problems with methods other than **** rang in his head, but John found himself frustrated at all of his immediate impulses screaming otherwise.

John had solved thousands of issues in hundreds of games by using methods other than direct confrontation. Subterfuge, stealth, deceit, backstabbing, diplomacy, negotiation, alliances, bartering, charming, swaying, persuading... a thousand words for a million possibilities that now seemed so impossible, so far away from where he stood then. John had solved almost every problem since he became a mage with some form of ****, either looting materials or killing his enemies. The year of isolation hadn't helped either, and John stumbled and paused awkwardly as he tried to push past the anxiety and adrenaline still vaguely pumping through his system.

"You're right about that. I can't make it right. Not that easily. Honestly, I've been winging it ever since I got these damn powers – the fact I'm still breathing is nothing short of a miracle. Would've sounded silly a year ago, but... since God is apparently real and so is magic, it doesn't sound so crazy anymore."

That got an actual chuckle out of Adantia, **** and bitter as it was. With her cables underground again and her body less tensed and ready to strike, the laugh brought some sense of normalcy to the conversation. For a moment John did his best to forget about the Northern Ashes, about Himiko and the Abyss, and worry about Adantia and this tragedy he hadn't even bothered trying to understand until now. John tried to tune out the wrecked supermarket and the dead city outside, to tune out the throbbing of the Shard in his chest. To pretend for a moment that things were normal, that they had ever been normal for more than a year now, and connect with someone that he hadn't literally created, and to do so on a level beyond simple survival.

"Adantia, I'm not going to pretend I understand what you went through. Losing your home like that and burying yourself away in the ruins all this time... it's a loss on a scale beyond my comprehension. I lost one person and I felt like my entire world broke apart. I hid away in my private world for a year without any contact from the outside other than an occasional recording from my former friends. I nearly lost my life at one point because I stopped caring enough about it to bother with the most basic precautions. But as far gone as I felt at times... I was never alone. There were always people around me worried for me, looking out for me. Even when I pushed them away, they never stopped trying to comfort me."

"You got a point to this story, or are you just bragging about how much family you had left?" Adantia asked, her voice bitter but not actually chastising.

"...Not bragging, really," John mumbled, blushing slightly in a bit of shame. "Just... acknowledging how lucky I was. You've spent years alone in this place, Adantia. I can't pretend my one experience somehow lets me understand all trauma, but... I know if I spent that long without a word to another living being, I'd be going crazy. If there's anything I can do that would help with whatever you may be feeling, I'll do it. If you want to talk, if you want me to talk... if you just want to sit here quietly and enjoy not being alone, I'll do that too."

"I'm not going to help you with your stupid war, even if you try to be my therapist," Adantia said, scoffing at John's offer.

"That might be true, but if it is... that means I won't come back here," John said, eyes cast toward the ground. "All the more reason for me to try to help you while I can, right? I may never be back again."

"And why do you care about helping me?" Adantia asked, her tone more skeptical than curious. "You just met me. You weren't even sure I was alive until just now."

"I want to fix the Abyss. Not just right a few wrongs, or save a few people. Ever since I got these powers, all anyone has told me is how dangerous the Abyss is, or how cruel it is, or how merciless and unforgiving it is. I know the mundane world isn't exactly perfect either, but at least it doesn't exist in a constant state of war and suffering. I want to change things, make it safe for people again. I want there to be a place – even if it's just one – that people can feel safe. Like how I have my private world, I want everyone in the Abyss to have somewhere they can just live, you know?"

"Yeah, I do know, and I'd appreciate it if you stopped trying to kiss so much ass!" Adantia exclaimed, rolling her eyes.

"Ex...cuse me?" John mumbled, eyebrows lifting at the unexpectedly annoyed response.

"That's pretty much word for word what I told Rachel about this place – her and anyone else who would listen! I get it, you want me on your good side, but don't pretend to share a dream just to earn brownie points, it makes you look pathetic."

Adantia's expression made it clear that she wasn't being coy or trying to toy with John; she seemed to genuinely think his words were nothing but fluff, just a screen to gain her favor.

"W-wait, you wanted to change things to? You wanted to reform the whole Abyss?" John murmured, trying his best not to stammer too much. "Everyone told me it was impossible, like I was a fool for even trying! They never mentioned one of the most powerful mages to ever live had it as her primary goal! I mean... I guess they did think you died trying, but still..."

"You... wait, you're serious, aren't you? You actually didn't know about that? That's, like, the least secret thing about me! Did you seriously do no research before you stumbled out here?!" Adantia exclaimed. "Even if the story you told me is true, I assumed you were leaving the boring parts out!"

"Well, I didn't realize we'd be coming here until earlier today," John said defensively.

"Yeah, when you got ambushed by Himiko after rushing across the country half-assed, with a girl in a **** collar leading you? By the way, side note, pretty fucked up."

"I know," John growled, rubbing at his temples. "If it wasn't for the situation back home, I wouldn't even be here! I didn't come back after a year because I was ready, okay?! I spent months hunting down the remainder of the Albidians, slaughtering every last one of them – and even longer dealing with my grief. I still am, but... at least in the last few weeks, I got around to training again. I didn't come here because I thought it was smart, or well-planned. I did it because I had ****, because at least if I died on this quest, I wouldn't have to live with the knowledge that I never even tried!"

"Knew a lot of people like you. Good people. They're all dead now," Adantia said, shrugging casually. "Not just from Suula, either. Lot of 'em died doing stupid shit like you're trying right now. Not saying it's bad, but you know how selfish you're being now, right?"

"S-selfish? For trying to help? I'm trying to do what's right!"

"That girl you were talking about – Moira, right? She's gonna be pretty sad if she has to give up her home and marry some creep. But if you two are really friends, how much worse off is all that going to be on her if you aren't there for her? Especially if she knows you died in the desert somewhere trying to stop it."

"I- but if I don't try-"

"You'll be sad. See how it's being selfish now?" Adantia replied, crossing her arms. "It's brave to put your life on the line, but don't fool yourself. If you're going on a suicide mission because you can't live with the consequences, that just means you're leaving those consequences to the people who stayed behind. My city was peaceful until Suula betrayed us, I made damn sure of it, but whenever a conflict broke out... there were always people who'd leave to join it. People with friends and families outside the city, who insisted they had to help, even when they knew it was a losing battle. They left a lot of grieving people behind them... widows, siblings, parents, children..."

"So, what? Never take a risk, because it'd be selfish to die?" John asked, flabbergasted.

"Nope. I didn't say I stopped them from leaving, did I? Everyone draws their own line... I just don't like people lying. To others or themselves. You're not doing this because it would make her sad. You're doing it because it would make you sad. That's beautiful, because it means you care and don't want to see her sad... and it's stupid and selfish, because if you get yourself killed, she'll be even worse off. You pick which outcome you'd rather live – or die – with... and then hope you don't regret it later."

"So what would you have done?" John asked, huffing slightly.

"Well, I'm a selfish piece of shit, so let's see, if everyone I met kept dying because of getting into pointless wars and conflicts, gee... I guess I'd probably go off on my own, isolate myself for a while, get crazy powerful, then build a paradise off somewhere on my own so I could pretend the rest of the world didn't exist for a while."

"Are... are you mocking me?" John asked, actually chuckling a little. "No... wait, you didn't believe me when I told you my story!"

"I believed you did a bunch of dumb shit and wound up here," Adantia said, rolling her eyes. "I just didn't believe you about your bullshit powers."

"Don't deflect; you just opened up! You weren't mocking me, you actually were referring to what you'd do. You opened this city because... well, in your words, because you were selfish and wanted to stop from...

"Oh."

John slumped against the wall as Adantia's words sank in, contemplating what the defensive woman had just admitted. The irony of their stories being so similar was part of his shock – and the thought that Himiko almost certainly knew it well did pass through his mind – but it was more a grim contemplation of the true implications that left John speechless for so long.

Their stories were similar, true... with the difference being that when John had erected his paradise, when he had found his safety away from the world... he had kept that peace. So far, at least - minus one incursion from those cursed Albidians. Here Adantia stood, one of the few survivors of her own paradise after it was torched to the ground, never having known a place that was truly safe from the outside world.

One **** had sent John into a spiral. Even if he'd had the years she had to deal with that grief, even if he'd thrown himself into something productive like building a city from nothing... what state would he be in if, after all that, he'd watched his creations, his world, quite literally burning around him?

"Yeah."

Adantia's lone word was all that was spoken for several minutes. Adantia seemed just as awkward as John for once, and neither of them was able to look each other in the eyes for several moments as the silence dragged on.

"...You really don't believe me about my story, huh? I mean, creating Abyssal creatures, a private world that isn't a Barrier, that stuff. But you believe the rest?"

"Look, I've seen some crazy shit from late bloomers," Adantia said after a moment's pause, rolling her eyes, "but none of them have ever done something that fucks with the rules of the Abyss. New forms of magic, sure. Every now and then one of 'em ends up having some crazy ability that gives them power way beyond what some dumbass who just joined the Abyss should have, sure. But none of them have ever done the real crazy shit. They don't bring Barrier creatures into the real world. They don't invent new forms of Barriers that nobody else can reach with any existing magic.

"Some of them could conjure elementals or dead spirits like necromancers, sure. A couple of them had weird affinities that let them break past normal magical immunities; those were always fun, saw a few people get absolutely wrecked when they relied too much on being untouchable. Other late bloomers might find a new way to alter their appearance or their biology in a fun way – and I knew a lot of people who researched exactly how to do that for some pretty degenerate reasons. But no matter how weird or powerful they seemed, they all had limits – and none of them ever defied the core rules of the Abyss."

John considered arguing with her, to try convincing her that maybe he was telling the truth. But Adantia had already said that she believed him about some parts of his story, and there were supposedly Abyssal mages who had altered their biologies. John couldn't just summon one of his creations to prove it – and even then, despite the softening of Adantia's disposition, he wasn't willing to risk them for this.

"Adantia... if you're so convinced, let's make a deal," John said, trying to keep his voice calm. "If I can prove to you that I have the abilities I mentioned, that I can really Purify Barrier creatures and make them into new, living species... you'll help us defeat the Northern Ashes."

"Wait, you're serious?" Adantia asked, scoffing. Despite her obvious skepticism and the raised eyebrow she offered, there was something deeper in her eyes. A sudden apprehension that betrayed her prior confidence in his exaggeration or deception about his abilities.

"Deadly. If I can show you I've got the powers, will you help save my allies?"

"Why would I take that bet?," Adantia responded, scoffing and rolling her eyes. "I don't believe you – I absolutely do not. But I get nothing out of being right or wrong. So when you finally give up on fooling me, what do I get out of all this?"

"If I'm lying, I'll... I can... uh..." John stumbled, trying to come up with something on the fly. He was so confident in the truth he knew he had failed to consider what a skeptic might want for their part. His instinct was to overcompensate, particularly given that he knew for a fact he was going to prove himself right. "If I'm lying, I'll bow to your will. I'll do whatever you want - whether that’s helping to rebuild this city or just fucking off and never coming back - for a full year."

"So you're either telling the truth about having some kind of crazy abilities..." Adantia began, quirking a now very curious eyebrow at him, "or you were lying about the time frame for helping your friends. You're an interesting man, John Newman...."

Adantia let a wry smirk cross her face as she reached out a hand to shake John's own. Despite her intrigue, she seemed far more amused than actually interested in what was to come.